The Near Miss Effect – How Slot Machines Use Psychology to Keep You Playing

Near-misses on slot machines create the illusion that players are close to winning, which increases their desire to keep playing because they think they may only need a few spins to hit the jackpot.

Evidence supporting near-miss effects on gambling persistence is mixed. Two notable experimental demonstrations (Cote et al. 2003 and Kassinove and Schare 2001) used resistance-to-extinction tests involving both humans and pigeons for resistance-to-extinction testing purposes.

Symbols

Losing at blackjack, roulette or the lottery is unsettling – yet at the same time exciting, as you were so close to victory! Near-miss outcomes can be particularly stimulating to problem gamblers who believe that with slight adjustments they’ll eventually succeed next time around.

Researchers have discovered that near-miss outcomes stimulate similar reward systems as gambling wins do – even without financial reinforcement – due to them creating a sense of control that encourages further play.

To test their hypothesis, the team created an innovative gambling-like paradigm for rats that mimicked slot machine operation. Rats would press a lever similar to slot machines in order to collect rewards; but only activated when all three flashing lights came on at once. They compared neural responses between wins and near miss contrasts in two separate groups of rats; results revealed that ventral striatum and rACC neurons were more active after near misses compared with wins; this neural response pattern correlated well with GRCS scores which measure susceptibility to cognitive distortions caused by gambling.

Paylines

Slot machines are designed to create the illusion of control. This can be accomplished through near-miss outcomes (when players come close to winning but fall just short), or “losses disguised as wins” (where less money than was bet back from each spin). Such deception increases a player’s desire to keep playing, in hopes that with additional efforts or changes to strategy they might finally hit the jackpot!

Scientists conducted experiments to test this, placing rats in cages equipped with flashing lights similar to slot machine reels and providing them with levers they could press when all three lights were illuminated – this would result in them collecting a reward pellet if all three lights had come on simultaneously. After testing these rats on near miss outcomes they discovered that their rACC response to near miss trials depended heavily on personal control, suggesting this region plays an essential role in processing subjective significance of near miss outcomes and was positively correlated with self-report ratings and questionnaire measures of gambling propensity.

Bonus rounds

Slot machines not only boast flashing lights and celebratory sounds, but they also present players with an opportunity to win big – something which drives their allure for gamblers who become so addicted. When winning results in dopamine being released by their brain and increasing feelings of euphoria – making players want to experience this high again and again!

Neuropsychopharmacology recently published a groundbreaking research article which uncovers the molecular mechanism underlying this phenomenon. Researchers conducted experiments on rats placed inside cages containing three flashing lights that roughly mimicked slot machine reels; at each trial trial session they would press a lever to collect reward pellets as rewards.

Results indicated that near-miss outcomes were perceived to be less pleasant than full misses, yet still increased ratings of “continue to play.” This effect could be explained by near-miss trials having an increased expectation for future rewards; dopamine release in midbrain and ventral striatum likely contributed to this difference in expectations.

Odds of hitting a jackpot

Researchers have recently found that near-miss outcomes, wherein slot machine reel stops stop just one position away from winning outcome, increase gambling motivation and may contribute to pathological gambling (PG) among vulnerable individuals. These results are in line with cognitive accounts of PG which suggest that near winning encourages continued play by increasing reward expectancy and galvanizing further gambling activity.

This research employed a computerized slot machine programmed to produce near-miss outcomes in combination with a controlled experimental design. Electroencephalographic (EEG) data indicated that near-miss outcomes recruited the same brain circuitry as monetary wins, with anterior insula activity correlating with subjective ratings of continued playback desire and questionnaire measures of gambling propensity.

Participants engaged in an fMRI experiment by engaging in a series of monetary wins and near-misses, with repeated wins/near miss outcomes compared with control contrasts for their chosen gamble selection. Winning outcomes increased rACC and ventral striatal activity while near misses reduced feedback-related negativities while amplifying P300 responses compared to losses.

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